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Tuberville Staying or Leaving?
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Should He Stay or Should He Go?
One of our writers, Rick, ran into a friend who happens to be an Auburn fan (at his request, we’ll call him AU-Nwstrn) with some ties to the program. He posed the following:
RICK: So now that Dennis Franchione is done at Texas A&M, will Tommy jump for College Station? Got any inside baseball on this one?
AU-Nwstrn: The short answer is, "Maybe."
First, you should know that as long as T.T. (Tuberville) has been at Auburn there have been rumors about someone coming to hire him away. None of them have been true yet. That doesn't mean this one isn't true (in fact, it's the most realistic scenario yet), but I thought I should offer some historical perspective.
The factors involved in this specific situation go something like this: There is very little doubt that aTm can afford to pay T.T. more that Auburn can, and with Bama shelling out $4M for Sab(t)an last year, a sum similar to that from a school as desperate and as rich as aTm is not out of the question. At AU, T.T. is making $2.6M this year with a $200K annual escalation until 2011. T.T.'s contract has a $6M buyout, which aTm, again, could probably afford if they want him bad enough (Fran's contract also has a $6M buyout, but with newsletter-gate aTm might be able to weasel out of that one). So, if aTm wants T.T., they're looking at $6-$12M in buyouts and somewhere in the neighborhood of $4M per year.
So, Auburn cannot compete money-wise. However, I think that T.T. is the kind of person who understands the law of diminishing returns and that an extra $1M or $1.5M per year is not going to make his life noticeably better.
- He just finished a new home in Auburn.
- He has two sons who are about 10 and 13, and he has said publicly that he wants them to finish HS in Auburn (of course, a private jet can fly between Auburn and College Station anytime).
- By all accounts, he and his family are happy where they are.
- Football-wise, he has STOCKED this team with talent. If he goes to aTm, he'll be taking over a rebuilding project.
- Sure, he'll be recruiting talent-rich Texas, but Mack Brown's been doing that for years and it's not like they hand him the National Championship (or even the Big 12) trophy every year.
- Tommy would be looking at least three or four years down the line before he could have aTm anywhere close to where he has Auburn right now talent-wise.
I think in the end it plays out this way: T.T. leverages aTm's interest into a (well-deserved) raise and contract extension (probably between $3M and $3.5 in year one with built-in escalations). Then aTm will hire... well, I don't really give a (expletive deleted) as long as it's not Tommy. But, if I'm wrong and Tuberville is motivated by the money, aTm will win because they have more to offer. Even so, if that happens, Auburn will be the most attractive available coaching job in college football next year and we WILL get a good one.
On a related note, I think that Bama's grossly inflated, borderline insane contract for Sab(t)an really woke up some of the saner people in College football. I think that both coaches and administrators now understand that they only give out one championship per year, and winning it not only requires talent and hard work, but also a little bit of luck. I also think that coaches understand that there's more to it than the $ - you want an administration that supports you, helps you recruit, builds and maintains your facilities, etc, and the grass is not necessarily greener somewhere else. T.T. wants to win a national championship. He is closer to doing that at Auburn than he would be at aTm.
We'll see what happens, though. T.T. has two really big games in the next 16 days. Losing both of those could make his departure more palatable. Winning them both could make his new contract a little richer.
'07 Writer's Bowl Pick 'Ems
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South Florida at Rutgers
Thursday - 7:30 PM - ESPN
By Dan
Following back-to-back losses against Maryland and Cincinnati, Rutgers bounced back last week with a decisive win over Syracuse. This week they look to play the skunk at the proverbial garden party college football bandwagon has thrown for South Florida – AKA the “new Rutgers”. And in case no one yet has seen, South Florida is no joke. It has taken three years of upsets and a crazy year of college football, but USF sits at #2 in the inaugural BCS poll of 2007 and has a moderately difficult, but doable, remaining schedule beginning with Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights get the advantage of home field, but the site that bore the Louisville upset last year, as part of a ten-game winning streak at Piscataway, hasn’t been as kind recently (both of Rutgers losses this year have been at home). Both offenses have huge weapons in RB Ray Rice and QBs Matt Grothe and Mike Teel that will be facing off against two solid defenses (the weakest area being Rutgers against the run – although the ground game is not where South Florida excels). This game has all the makings of an upset and in a year where, if the unthinkable can happen, it will, one might think Rutgers will walk away. At the same time, if we’re to pick the more unlikely outcome I’m not sure if that would be a #2 falling or South Florida remaining in the second spot.
Beginning with the home team, there will be three keys I will be looking for on Thursday to gauge the Scarlet Knights’ success. (1) Turnovers. Rutgers turned the ball over seven times to Maryland and Cincinnati. Luckily, in the game against Maryland none ended with points for their opponent (thanks to missed FGs). Against Cincinnati however, turnovers led to the Bearcats’ go-ahead touchdown and the end of Rutgers’ final drive to win the game. (2) Balanced offense. With veterans at QB and RB, the key to Rutgers’ success both this year and last year has been balance. Maryland and Cincinnati were both successful by shutting down Rice and putting the game on Teel’s shoulders. Like many losing efforts, Teel threw the ball an average of 41 times against both teams, compared to an average of 22 attempts in their four victories. The difference becomes even more apparent comparing the ratio of passing yards to rushing.
Rutgers Victories
Opponent Total Passing Yds Total Rushing Yds Ratio
Buffalo 328 235 1.4
Navy 260 210 1.2
Norfolk St. 297 240 1.2
Syracuse 158 110 1.4
Rutgers Losses
Maryland 310 82 3.8
Cincinnati 334 98 3.4
(3) Pressure on Grothe. South Florida has allowed few sacks this year so this will be no easy task; however, if the Bulls are to trip up, it will be at the hands of their sophomore QB who will be feeling extra pressure as the leader of a team now suddenly #2 and in the national spotlight.
On the other sideline, the keys for South Florida will be: (1) Grothe. He is the QB, the leading scorer, and the leading rusher. It’s no secret that this Big East Rookie of the Year makes the Bulls a winner. Winning means keeping the pressure off of him and letting him do his thing. (2) The same defense that showed up for West Virginia. In that case, after stopping Slaton, White, and Devine, Ray Rice shouldn’t be a problem. The tell here will come on third down. Opponents facing the Bull defense have been successful converting on third down less than a quarter of the time (2nd in the NCAA). Rutgers, thanks to Rice, has been very successful on third down converting slightly less than half the time (17th in the NCAA). If the Bulls blink, Rutgers will be able to grind out a victory. If instead its Rutgers, South Florida should pull out another close one. (3) Special Teams. On one side, Rutgers has one of the worst net punting yards in the country opening up excellent opportunities to grab good field position. On the other side, South Florida has a weaker kicker with a less than 60 FG% and a long of only 40 yards. In a close game, that could make all the difference.
This is one game I would want to watch, but would not want to put money on.
FINAL SCORE: RUTGERS 30 - SOUTH FLORIDA 27
POST GAME COMMENTS (FROM DAN): What a great game. And not just because yet another #2 failed to defend its ranking in a big game. Going back to our "keys" for the game, the outcome shouldn't be too surprising. For the Scarlet Knights: (1) Turnovers. When Rice fumbled in Rutgers' territory with four minutes left, I thought that was when USF would fight back (I'll come back to this), but despite three turnovers none ultimately cost the game. (2) Balanced offense. The last two years Rutgers has been most effective when they have roughly balanced yards on the ground and through the air. Rutgers had 230 through the air and 170 on the ground (ratio of 1.4). (3) Pressure on Grothe. Grothe was sacked seven times in the loss to Rutgers. That was almost double than what was allowed since the beginning of the year. One key sack came after Rice fumbled in Rutger's territory to set up what could have been a winning drive. Except Grothe was sacked on the first play and the defense held the Bulls to a punt.
For South Florida: (1) Grothe. While Grothe gave an average performance, the pressure Rutgers brought made every inch cost a mile. (2) Solid defense. The Bulls allowed Ray Rice 180 yards. That is almost double what the Bulls defense allowed White and Slaton combined. (3) Special teams. The first field goal by Rutgers was set up by a fake punt and later a fake field goal led to a TD.
Both teams blocked a field goal. Big day (for good or bad) for special teams.
After thie one, once again the ranking are thrown into an upheaval. Connecticut now sits atop the Big East (no it's not basketball season yet), but really the title is up for anyone, including the Scarlet Knights. Both teams face stiff competition next week with Rutgers hosting West Virgini and South Florida traveling to UConn. The winners of those games will have an inside track to a BCS bid barring another round of crazy upsets which have become almost commonplace this year.
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USC at Notre Dame
Saturday 3:30 PM - NBC
By Travis
Whooaa Nellie it is time for Notre Dame and USC. Always a big time game with championships on the line, oh but this is 2007 year of the upset and 2nd or 3rd year of a Notre Dame team that is still rebuilding. Dang that Ty Willingham for not recruiting better. Charlie Weiss is throwing all kinds of changes at this game hoping to change the luck o’ the Irish from the green jerseys to another starting quarterback, his 3rd this season. Evan Sharpley will get the start at quarterback, Sharpley has led the Fighting Irish (1-6) to four of its seven offensive touchdowns, despite playing significantly less time than Clausen, a freshman who had started the past six games. "I think Evan this week gives us the best chance of winning," coach Charlie Weis said during his weekly news conference Tuesday. If only QB was the only problem with this offense however the ground game has provided no relief for whoever is under center, with ND netting just 1.0 ypc and a measly 32.1 ypg. Because of that, opponents have been able to tee off on ND QBs. The offensive line hasn’t helped either they have been a virtual turnstyle for the opposition, allowing a whopping 34 sacks this season. If there is a positive for the Domer’s it is that despite all the time the defense has had to spend on the field this season their numbers are respectable. ND has forced 17 turnovers thus far and has done a decent job against the pass (173.3 ypg). The rush defense has struggled though (186.7 ypg, 4.2 ypc). The defense will definitely have their work cut out for them this week facing a USC team that has been effective thanks to a balanced offense averaging 430.2 yards per game. The ground game is responsible for a hefty 198.2 yards per game, with the passing attack generating another 232.0 ypg. The big question mark for this offense, much like ND, is QB. Depending on the status of QB John David Booty (fractured finger), the USC offense may be under the control of Mark Sanchez for the second straight week. Just a sophomore, Sanchez led the Trojans to a come-from-behind win over the Wildcats a week ago, but this is a vastly different offense without Booty under center. With the offense taking a step or two back to Earth this season, the USC defense has had to step up and really dominate. The unit has done that for the most part, effectively shutting down both the run (66.8 ypg, 2.3 ypc) and the pass (199.8 ypg). The result is the eighth-ranked unit in the nation in terms of total defense (266.7 ypg).
All that should add up to an easy win for the Trojan’s but they did fall at home to Stanford and have struggled in their last couple of games and they are playing in full view of Touchdown Jesus and you know nothing would excite the ND faithful more than a win over one of their biggest rivals. You would think that all of this adds up to an easy win for USC and it is hard for me to believe that I am going to do this but in this season of wackiness I think there’s more to come and I that is why I am picking Notre Dame in a close one in South Bend.
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Michigan at Illinois
Saturday - 8:00 PM - ABC
By Dan
Don’t look now, but Michigan is back in the Top 25. The Wolverines and Ohio State are the last among the Big Ten with unblemished conference records. The football world is back as it was. Well not quite. Despite an upset loss to Iowa last week, Illinois remains a major factor in the Big Ten race. In fact, the Fighting Illini might be the toughest team Michigan has faced all year.
That’s not to say that Illinois has an easy road ahead. Their victory will depend on a number of factors, most importantly, Michigan RB Mike Hart. The comeback the Wolverines have mounted after two of the most disastrous opening weekends in college football history has been in large part due to the play and leadership of Hart. Even after the injury to QB Chad Henne, the Wolverines had one constant: their running game. The question is whether that constant will still be there against Illinois. Hart sat out the second half against Purdue will an ankle injury. He’s listed as the starter against the Illini, but how healthy is he? Without Hart, Michigan must rely on a third-team back whose name I don’t even know.
For Illinois, the questionable starter is QB Juice Williams. He was completely ineffective against Iowa and his backup McGee fared no better, throwing a pick at the goal-line and sealing the Hawkeyes’ victory. Michigan’s defense is softer than Iowa on paper and they have not yet faced a mobile quarterback like Williams, but the performance of last week and the weeks before were like night and day.
In this game, I actually think the struggles of early on will help Michigan. Instead of walking into Champaign thinking only OSU would keep them from a BCS bowl, this team knows it continues to have something to prove, and a vengeful Wolverine team is a force to be reckoned with (see last season). Illinois on the other hand will likely come in slow, showing the growing pains of a rising team. The Illini will need to minimize Hart and expose the young Wolverine D to take this one, but my bet this week is on Michigan by a couple scores.
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Week 7 - Top Games to Watch
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Good day. We're going to try to get a bit more in depth and we won't be making any point spread predictions. Here are our thoughts on the tops games of the week. (Okay, okay, so everyone but Dan was a lazy bum and didn't get previews in before the deadline)
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Wisconsin at Penn State
Saturday, 3:30 PM - ABC
by Dan
Like several others this year, back in Week 1 this game seemed to carry far more weight than it does now. But don’t be fooled. While this game no longer carries national implications, this game is of utmost importance to both teams and to the Big Ten. After rising to a #5 ranking, the Badgers were shocked last week by Illinois and now needs this victory to stay in the Big Ten race. The Nittany Lions enter this week following a win over a struggling Iowa team, but needs the victory to keep from dropping to a lower bowl due to previous losses against Michigan and yes, wonders never cease, Illinois.
For sports fans, this is one to watch because both teams have a great shot at coming out with a win. Penn State has a huge advantage of playing this one in Happy Valley where they have been more productive than on the road. On the other hand, that may not necessarily be the case of home-field advantage, but rather that the teams they’ve played at home – FIU, ND, Buffalo, and Iowa – have a combined record of 5-19; whereas their road opponents – Michigan and Illinois – are 9-3. Nonetheless, it will be on the Badgers’ shoulders to quickly quiet Beaver Stadium and prevent Penn State from building on the offensive confidence they began to reestablish last week. PSU also has the advantage of a top ten defense (allowing around 250 yards/game), which may be overstated given the quality of their opponents thus far, but will be able to focus more on the talents of RB P.J. Hill following the season-ending injury to Badger starting WR Luke Swan.
The Nittany Lions must focus on three factors to hand the Badgers their second upset loss. (1) Morelli must avoid making poor decisions. Five of his six interceptions have come in the last two games. In the loss against Michigan, several of his balls came close to being picked off in their final drive that could have tied the game. (2) JoePa cannot play conservative. With a decided confidence advantage heading into Michigan, Paterno chose to play like he had the lead throughout the game (which he never did). The one exception was his choice to receive on the opening kickoff, despite having a struggling offense, which ultimately led to a three-and-out giving Michigan great field position on their first possession (the same mistake ND make the weekend before). Wisconsin, particularly its defense, will enter this game questioning itself. If JoePa plays conservative once again, he will give the Badgers every opportunity to grab the helm and run with it. (3) PSU must contain P.J. Hill. While Penn State has a great defense on paper, even when they KNEW Michigan was going to give the ball to Mike Hart, they allowed his over 150 yards and a touchdown. Similar to last year, every loss that Wisconsin has had involves Hill running under the century mark.
On the other side, the three keys to the Badgers’ success this week will be: (1) The Badger defense must produce. Whether it be turnovers, pressure, or three-and-outs, as a previous defensive coordinator, you know Bret Bielema is not happy with his team dropping 60 points in the last two games. Three of six games this year their opponents scored more than any opponent did last year. (2) P.J. Hill must score. This is especially the case with Swan no longer in the lineup. While Beckum will remain a great target for Donovan, Pen State will be able to provide additional coverage on that side, leaving more of a burden on Hill (or Donovan if PSU decides to stack the box instead) to carry the offense. (3) Take advantage of Penn State’s struggling offense by scoring early. Morelli is prone to making mistakes. PSU’s second leading rusher and leading scorer has been suspended. With the help of the defense, the offense needs to break this game early and quiet the crowd at Beaver Stadium.
This one is a tough one to call, which leads me to the one and only deciding factor – who I want to win. Badgers take it. Enough said.
FINAL SCORE: PENN STATE 38 - WISCONSIN 7
RECAP (from Dan):
In this blowout by Penn State, the Nittany Lions did everything necessary to win, and the Badgers did everything necessary to lose. Looking back to the three keys for PSU:
(1) Morelli must avoid making poor decisions. Morelli threw no interceptions and did not fumble the ball. The only turnover by Penn State came near the end of the third quarter when the game was already well in hand.
(2) JoePa cannot play conservative. With Penn State up three scores at the half, this did not play a huge factor.
(3) PSU must contain P.J. Hill. Hill was held to only 75 yards on the day. Granted he injured against Illinois and again on Saturday, but the numbers are all that matters.
For Wisconsin:
(1) The Badger defense must produce. Over 400 yards allowed, only one takeaway, and two fourth-down conversions. Not a productive day.
(2) P.J. Hill must score. See above.
(3) Take advantage of Penn State’s struggling offense by scoring early. The Badgers did exactly the opposite. A turnover on their own 12 on the opening possession allowed Penn State to grab an easy touchdown and the momentum they never gave up thereafter.
Well if wishes were horses, beggars would ride. While I would have loved the Badgers to right their ship at Happy Valley, they get a much easier chance this week against Northern Illinois at home. Penn State has the more difficult task of not over-looking a Hoosier team about to lockup bowl eligibility for OSU next weekend.
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